The International Air Transport Association (IATA) has said that global capacity growth eased to 3.3% year on year (YoY) in March 2026 and predicts it will slow even further in April 2026.
On March 31, 2026, IATA said that the results represent a “notable downward revision from the 5.2% YoY growth that had been projected in earlier schedules”.
Perhaps unsurprisingly the adjustment was primarily linked to the war in Iran with airlines forced to make “substantial capacity cuts”.
IATA said that the revision was also a result of airspace closures which have forced carriers to cancel or reroute flights.
“Looking ahead, current schedules indicate that global seat capacity growth will slow further to 2.7% YoY in April,” said IATA.
The association added: “These reductions in a major connecting hub for Asia–Europe and Africa–Asia traffic flows are expected to exert continued downward pressure on global seat growth in the near term.”
IATA said that February 2026 had been a “strong month” for passenger demand, “showing that the fundamentals for demand growth were in place for a positive year”.
Total demand, measured in revenue passenger kilometers (RPK), was up 6.1% compared to February 2025, while total capacity, measured in available seat kilometers (ASK), increased 5.6% year-on-year.
“Without knowing the length and intensity of the war in the Middle East, it is impossible to quantify the full impact that it will have on airline prospects. But some things are already clear. Fuel costs have risen sharply. With tight capacity and thin margins, air fares are already rising,” said Willie Walsh, IATA’s Director General.
He added: “Capacity deployment is also adjusting, particularly for traffic to, from, or through the Middle East, or in areas where fuel supply is an issue.”
The US and Israel first struck Iranian territory on February 28, 2026.
Read the full IATA February 2026 report here.