At the bustling Singapore Airshow 2026, amid the static displays and aerial demonstrations, one notable absence caught industry observers’ attention: the lack of blockbuster aircraft order announcements, something that typically dominates airshow headlines.
AeroTime had the opportunity to have a chat with Alan Lim, Director of aviation consulting firm Alton Aviation, on the second day of the event to explore this shift and discuss broader trends shaping the industry.
Aircraft orders: A market reaching saturation
The absence of major order announcements at this year’s airshow reflects a fundamental change in the industry’s ordering patterns, according to Lim.
Airlines have been exceptionally active in placing orders over recent years, creating what he described as an unprecedented backlog situation.
“If you look at the orders that have been made over the past few years, not just at the Singapore Air Show, but at other air shows around the world, airlines have placed massive amounts of orders to support their upcoming fleet plans,” Lim explained. The result is a combined backlog of over 70,000 aircraft between Airbus and Boeing.
This massive order book has created a sobering reality for airlines considering new purchases.
“What this means is that if you order aircraft today, it’s going to come in the next eight to 10 years at the earliest,” Lim noted. With such extended delivery timelines, airlines are shifting their focus from ordering to operational challenges.
“Airlines have placed their orders to support their fleet plans, and right now, it’s [airlines]really focusing on trying to navigate the post-pandemic recovery phase and trying to look forward to the future in this very competitive but growth-oriented environment,” Lim said.
COMAC: The long road to disruption
18 years after its founding, China’s COMAC continues to build its presence at international airshows, including this year’s Singapore Airshow. This raises questions about when the manufacturer might genuinely challenge the Airbus-Boeing duopoly. Lim acknowledged the progress while tempering expectations about the timeline.
“Building an aircraft and selling an aircraft is a very, very difficult and very, very long process,” he emphasized, pointing to the decades it took both Airbus and Boeing to reach their current positions. “COMAC has had good success in China with their C919 and C909, and they’re making inroads into Southeast Asia, into some of these Southeast Asian airlines, like Laos Airlines.”
The Chinese manufacturer is actively engaging with multiple regional carriers, discussing potential sales of both the C919 and C909 aircraft. However, Lim cautioned that significant challenges remain.
“They are up and coming in terms of being able to be a genuine contender to Airbus and Boeing. But there is still a long way to go,” he said. “There is still much to do for them to break the duopoly of Airbus and Boeing in the narrowbody market, especially.”
When pressed on whether this disruption might take decades, Lim remained diplomatically optimistic. “It’s a little bit hard to say right now, just given the pace of disruption and development that we face today, definitely not in the near term, but in the medium, in the long term, there is a potential for them to achieve more than what they have today.”
ACMI: European success, Asian potential
The Aircraft, Crew, Maintenance, and Insurance (ACMI) leasing model has proven successful in Europe, prompting questions about its applicability in the Asia-Pacific region. Lim sees similar drivers emerging in Asia that could support growth in this sector.
“The one driver of the need for ACMI is really around the need for capacity to supplement the organic capacity that a lot of these airlines have,” he explained. Global supply chain disruptions have delayed aircraft deliveries, forcing airlines worldwide to seek alternative capacity solutions to meet peak demand periods.
While Asia experiences seasonal demand patterns, Lim noted that they may not be as pronounced as European markets.
“In Asia, we still have similar seasonal peaks, but maybe not as strong as what we see in Europe, but certainly, given the shortages and capacity that we see, we would expect some of these demand drivers to be applicable to this region as well.”
eVTOL: From concept to commercial reality
As the presence of electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) aircraft continues to grow at airshows, Lim believes commercial operations are closer than many realize.
“If you look at some of the leading OEMs of eVTOLs, they are looking to certify their aircraft within the next, let’s say, one to three years,” he said.
The timeline is becoming increasingly concrete, with specific operators setting target dates.
He continued: “We have Joby that says that they want to start launching passenger services in Dubai or in UAE by late 2026, early 2027, so we’re actually getting quite close to see the first eVTOL take to the skies on commercial service.”
However, Lim distinguished between initial commercial flights and widespread urban air mobility. “To be in an environment where you see a large number of eVTOLs operating in our cities around the world, I think that’s still a little bit far away.”
The challenges extend beyond aircraft certification to encompass entire urban air mobility ecosyste ms.
“Not only do you have to certify the aircraft, [but] you [also] have to make sure that the infrastructure is ready, the air traffic control, urban air traffic control, is ready, and all the surrounding regulations and certifications need to be put in place,” Lim said.
Despite these challenges, Lim maintained an optimistic outlook. “We’ll definitely see it on some limited scale. But there’s still, again, a lot more to be done in this space.”
When asked whether widespread eVTOL operations might occur within our lifetimes, he expressed cautious confidence.
“With the pace of disruption, hopefully it’ll be in our lifetime. It’ll be definitely exciting to see what this future mode of transportation would bring.”
Singapore Airshow 2026 may have lacked the dramatic order announcements of previous years, but as Lim’s insights reveal, the industry continues to evolve in ways that may prove more transformative than any single aircraft deal.
Indeed, the aviation industry faces a complex but promising future as it grapples with unprecedented backlogs and prepares for new forms of urban air mobility.