AeroTime is excited to welcome a new columnist with deep industry insight. Gary Vermaak is a techno-economic consultant specializing in sustainable mobility and renewable energy. A former member of the South African Air Force, he brings a unique perspective shaped by a career in accounting and finance across banking, energy, and mining.
Today, he serves as Africa Chapter Director and Global Secretariat for the Drone Logistics Ecosystem, Chief of Staff: Advisors at the Advanced Air Mobility Institute, and Vice President at Open AAM Org. Passionate about aerospace and aviation, Gary focuses on sustainability and what he calls the third era of aviation: the electric age.
The views and opinions expressed in this column are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of AeroTime.
For some, Archer Aviation’s Midnight electric vertical take-off and landing (eVTOL) aircraft may seem sleek, ambitious, and full of promise. However, many of the claims we hear from eVTOL developers and industry pundits also feel like what consultants like to call “big hairy audacious goals”, or BHAGs.
This article explores those BHAGs, the bold visions shaping the future of urban air mobility (UAM), and asks how realistic they really are.
Automotive scale manufacturing
Can one really compare the manufacturing of Toyota Corollas with composite aircraft making?
When it comes to the Archer and Stellantis forecasts of producing 150 aircraft in the first year and eventually up to 650 aircraft a year, one has to look at the biggest general aviation aircraft maker, Cirrus. According to the General Aviation Manufacturers Association (GAMA) annual shipment report for 2024, Cirrus sold and delivered 630 SR series composite piston engined aircraft and 101 SF50 light jets. Stellantis’ Maserati MC20 Modena carbon fibre body and chassis supercar recorded sales of just 260 cars, down from 1,244 in 2023. The MC20 has a current base price of $314k, compared to a minimum of $5 million for an Archer Midnight.
Autonomous and Simple Vehicle Operation (SVO) flight systems
It is unlikely that the EHang’s 216S autonomous flight system is better than Sikorsky‘s Matrix system for current and future helicopters, which provides SVO and autonomous flight capability for wildfire fighting, or Rotor Technologies’ R550X (Autonomous Robinson R44).
eVTOL developers touting their simple vehicle control systems are offering the same capabilities as Skyryse with SkyOS on their Skyryse One (an SVO Robinson R66 and Sikorsky UH60 upgrade).
Operational capabilities and use cases
Comparing the Joby Aviation S4, with the Robinson Tier One eR44 and fuel cell electric SHy4 with the Robinson United Therapeutics Corporation fuel cell eR44 and planned eR66 for AAM, there are questions that need to be asked. Will Joby’s aircraft be better suited for air shuttle and air taxi operations than Robinson’s? And can the Joby fulfill all the use cases that Robinson’s aircraft can?
Vertiports: are they new?
The first vertiport, the Dallas CBD Vertiport opened in 1994 at the Kay Bailey Hutchinson Convention Centre. This opening followed the Federal Aviation Administration’s issuing of AC 150/5390-3 in May 1991, in anticipation of a civilian version of the Boeing Bell Flight V-22. The second, Vertiport Chicago, opened in 2015.
Like airports, heliports can also be adapted for other (e)VTOL configurations by installing chargers and the required fire suppression systems, as is planned in the United Arab Emirates.
The market(s)
UAM has been around for the last eight decades, so given the realities of owning and operating aircraft vs. an Uber vehicle, EV, or ICEV, the market for air taxi and air shuttle services will be the same High-net-worth individuals (HNWI) and business executive travelers who currently use services like Blade.
There are certainly helicopter use cases that an eVTOL can fulfil once battery energy densities or the weight of hydrogen tanks can be reduced to acceptable weights, from emergency medical services and humanitarian missions to law enforcement.
Sales forecasts
Archer forecasts that it will sell 150 aircraft in its first year of production, eventually ramping up to between 650 and 1,000 aircraft per year. But that raises an important question: will Archer, or any other eVTOL developer, really be able to sell and deliver that many multimillion-dollar aircraft? For comparison, Robinson sells around 160 R44 helicopters annually in a market that currently totals about 1,000 helicopters per year. Ehang has sold and delivered 216 of its EH216S (type certified by the CAAC in October 2023), to air tourism operators.
Conclusion – Greening aviation
A passenger eVTOL is essentially a greener alternative to traditional helicopters, which have served the urban air mobility (UAM) market since the first commercial models were certified in 1946, as well as to powered-lift aircraft like the Leonardo AW609 tiltrotor.
The true value of electric aircraft, whether fixed-wing (eCTOL and eSTOL) or vertical take-off and landing (eVTOL), lies in their potential to make aviation more sustainable and reduce the aviation industry’s reliance on fossil fuels.