As there are still no consensus in UK parliament on the current Brexit deal and with the March 2019 deadline approaching fast, aviation industry is in uncertainty.

On December 12, 2018, Rafael Schvartzman, IATA’s regional vice president, Europe, highlighted the fluidity of Brexit situation. With March 2019 – the date when the UK leaves European Union – is just around the corner, it is still not known if UK government will achieve a deal. If it does, then in April 2019 a two year transition period will begin, meaning a status quo until 2020. By that time a comprehensive air service deal can be reached.

If, however, UK leaves the EU in a “no-deal” Brexit scenario, significant disruption of air services is likely, IATA warns. It identifies fours key areas that have high impact on airline industry and currently have a “severe” lack of clarity: air services agreements, safety, security and border management.

Another issue is the fact that in a no-deal case, there is going to be no time to come up with a comprehensive UK-EU air services agreement, meaning that a “bare-bones” agreement would be needed to maintain at least minimal level of air connectivity. But “the degree of regulatory convergence or mutual recognition of this basic level agreement is still unclear,” the organization points out.