Global lessor Avolon has indicated that a new commercial aircraft program launch could be announced in 2027, with the Airbus A220-500, A350-2000 and Boeing 777-10X all in contention.
On January 23, 2026, Avolon released its ‘Up Next’ report, looking at the key trends in the aviation sector for 2026 and beyond.
Its forecast included an expectation that global airline industry profits could top $41 billion in 2026, thanks to low fuel prices and continuing economic growth.
Confirming that “a large number of commercial programs are in the works,” Avolon predicted that next year could see an aircraft manufacturer moving forward with their next aircraft program.
“2026 feels too soon for a new program launch, but 2027 may just be the year,” said the Up Next report.
Among the frontrunners, Avolon cites new stretches from both Airbus and Boeing, including the A220-500, 777-10X and A350-2000.
The report also forecasts that COMAC will “eventually progress its widebody concept,” while Embraer is studying “various program concepts, including in the smaller turboprop and larger single-aisle segments”.
Commenting on aircraft currently under development, Avolon’s report said: “Boeing’s 737-10 is facing a market share gap to Airbus’ A321neo that will demand a response, eventually.”
In reference to engine innovation, Avolon added: “CFM is developing its RISE open rotor engine, Rolls-Royce its UltraFan geared-turbofan, and Pratt & Whitney has further opportunity to develop its GTF.”
Other report insights
Avolon suggested that India, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia will lead the next growth cycle, with the three countries’ combined order backlog standing at over 3,000 aircraft.
“This represents more than double the current in-service fleet, with 900 aircraft to be delivered over the next 3 years,” the report said.
Airlines also risk missing out on growth opportunities due to the persistent structural undersupply of aircraft. Research by Avolon suggests that order backlogs at Airbus and Boeing now extend to over 11 years.
“The ongoing supply shortage will support higher lease rates and strong residual values, while increasing the strategic value of lessor-held slots for under-ordered airlines,” the report said.
2026 could also be a big year for Airbus’ A330neo, as it benefits from being the only new passenger widebody available before 2032.
Recently, the A330neo has attracted more than 30 operators, spanning low-cost carriers to premium network airlines.
Avolon added that Pratt & Whitney has largely resolved the powdered metal production quality escape, at the same time as increasing engine shop visit capacity and spare availability.
While the groundings are likely to persist through to 2028, over 150 GTF-powered aircraft should return to service in 2026.
“Airline financial performance continues to strengthen, with the industry expected to record its fourth consecutive year of profitability,” said Jim Morrison, Chief Risk Officer of Avolon. “Airlines’ ability to capture sector tailwinds will be impacted by a shortage of new aircraft deliveries and the long order backlogs at Airbus and Boeing.”
He added: “Well-capitalized lessors with orderbooks of new-technology aircraft are strongly positioned to outperform in the current market.”
To read Avolon’s report in full visit the company website.