Boeing anticipates 90% of European fleet will be replaced by 2040

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Boeing anticipates “steady growth” for the European aircraft market over the next 20 years. The manufacturer expects that 90% of the current fleet in Europe will be replaced by new aircraft. 

Boeing forecasts demand for 8,705 new aircraft valued at €1.25 trillion ($1.5 trillion) in the European market through 2040, according to the company’s 2021 Commercial Market Outlook (CMO). The demand for new aircraft will be driven by the growth of low-cost carriers as well as the rapidly expanding leisure travel market.

“Demand for air travel within Europe is leading the recovery as health and travel restrictions ease, followed by long-haul travel’s return to pre-pandemic levels by 2023 to 2024,” read Boeing’s statement.

Sustainability will shape the future of the European aviation market, Boeing says. Therefore, it is expected that European short-haul carriers will further invest in higher-capacity narrow-body aircraft to reduce fuel consumption and carbon emissions. As for the long-haul fleet, Boeing expects that European full-service carriers will “leverage new-generation widebodies, such as the 787 and 777X, that significantly improve efficiency”. 

“Single-aisle airplanes will initially be the main driver in expanding capacity to meet demand in the region,” said Brian Moran, Boeing vice president of Sustainability Policy and Partnerships. “In the long-haul segment, we see tremendous opportunity for carriers to replace older, less efficient aircraft with more versatile twin-engine models that reduce fuel use, CO2 emissions and noise.”

The Boeing’s Commercial Market Outlook also forecasts that Europe’s commercial aviation industry will be in need of more than 405,000 new aviation staff by 2040. 


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