Factors influencing flight prices: will they go down or up?

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When deliberating over flight bookings, travelers often wonder whether flight prices will rise or fall. Unfortunately, forecasting flight prices is a complicated business, influenced by a whole range of elements. Even though making exact predictions is impossible, gaining an understanding of the factors that sway flight prices can offer some insight into potential trends. 

This article will delve into the principal factors that affect flight prices, tips for securing the lowest flight prices, and the ideal time to look for flights.  

Main factors that influence flight prices 

There are five key factors that can impact flight prices and determine whether they are likely to go up or down. 

Fuel prices 

Fuel prices exert a considerable influence on the operational costs of airlines. A surge in fuel prices usually prompts airlines to hike ticket prices to counterbalance the added outlay. Conversely, a dip in fuel prices may lead to airlines passing on these savings to customers via cheaper fares.  

Nonetheless, foreseeing fuel price movements can be tricky due to the influence of geopolitical situations and supply and demand dynamics, among other factors. 


Seasonality also makes a notable impact on flight prices. During peak travel seasons like summer or significant holidays, flight demand tends to soar. Consequently, airlines often inflate ticket prices to capitalize on this heightened demand. In contrast, during quieter travel periods, airlines may roll out discounted fares to entice travelers.  

However, it’s important to consider that flight prices might also be swayed by factors unique to a particular destination, such as festivals, events or weather conditions. 


The level of competition between airlines plays a crucial role in determining flight prices. In intensely competitive markets, airlines may engage in price wars to draw in passengers, leading to lower fares as companies vie to outshine each other. In contrast, markets monopolized by a handful of major carriers might see permanently high ticket prices due to limited competition. 

The presence of low-cost carriers (LCCs) can often bring about a reduction in prices on certain routes, as they concentrate on providing budget-friendly options. 

Operating costs and financial health of airlines 

The financial status of airlines and their operational costs also exert an influence on flight prices. Should an airline find itself in financial trouble, it may need to increase prices to stay afloat. In contrast, airlines that are financially healthy and have reduced operational costs might be inclined to offer more competitive fares.  

Factors such as labor costs, maintenance expenses and fleet efficiency can all impact upon an airline’s operational outgoings. 

External factors 

External factors including political events, natural disasters, pandemics and economic conditions, can significantly influence flight prices. Political instability, travel restrictions or security concerns in a particular region can result in reduced demand and subsequent price drops. Conversely, a robust economy and growing consumer confidence may lead to heightened demand and potentially inflated flight prices.  

Furthermore, global events, notably the COVID-19 pandemic, have deeply affected the aviation industry, instigating fluctuations in flight prices due to travel restrictions and evolving passenger behavior.

Tips for securing the lowest flight prices 

Travel during off-peak seasons 

Avoiding holiday periods and popular vacation months often leads to lower flight prices. Typically, these are the shoulder seasons of Spring and Fall when demand is lower. 

Opt for midweek flights 

Weekday flights, particularly those on Tuesdays and Wednesdays, are generally cheaper compared to weekends, when travel demand tends to be higher. By Tuesday afternoon, rival airlines have usually matched or adjusted their prices accordingly. 

Choose red-eye or early-morning flights 

Less popular departure times, such as overnight or early morning flights, are usually cheaper due to lower demand. 

Look for last-minute deals 

Occasionally, airlines offer discounts on unsold seats close to the departure date. However, taking this approach can be unpredictable and risky if you have specific travel plans. 

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Set fare alerts 

Subscribe to fare alert services or airline and travel websites’ email notifications. By doing so, you can stay updated about price changes for specific routes and receive alerts when prices drop.

Be flexible with travel dates 

If your travel dates are flexible, consider using fare comparison websites that display a calendar view of prices. This can enable you to pinpoint the cheapest days to fly within your desired timeframe.

Keep an eye on the flight prices for a particular route over time to discern any patterns or trends. This can give you an indication of when prices tend to be lower or higher for that specific route.

When is the best time to book a flight price-wise? 

In general, the ideal window to search for flights in terms of price is approximately 1 to 3 months ahead of your desired departure date. This is typically when airlines release their flight schedules and prices, offering a good balance between seat availability and affordable fares. However, this can vary depending on the destination, season and other factors. 

Booking too far in advance, or else waiting until the last minute, can sometimes lead to higher prices. If you book too early, airlines may not have released all their available seats or promotional fares. Conversely, if you wait until the last minute, seat availability might be restricted and prices could rise to meet increased demand.

Flight prices and search behavior 

A common misconception is that flight prices rise if you repeatedly search the same route online. In fact, flight prices generally do not surge simply as a result of repeated searches. Airlines employ dynamic pricing algorithms which consider a variety of factors, but your personal search behavior is not one of them. Nevertheless, prices may fluctuate due to other factors such as demand, seat availability and external events. 

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