Boeing expects airlines and cargo operators to need nearly 44,000 new commercial aircraft over the next 20 years as passenger traffic grows, older fleets are replaced, and air cargo continues to expand.
In its 2026 Commercial Market Outlook (CMO), released ahead of the Farnborough International Airshow, the US manufacturer forecasts that the global commercial fleet will expand by nearly 80% to exceed 50,000 aircraft by 2045. While geopolitical tensions, supply chain challenges, and other short-term disruptions continue to affect the industry, Boeing believes these factors will not derail long-term aviation growth.
According to the forecast, passenger traffic will increase by around 4% annually, doubling global air travel by 2045. To accommodate this growth, airlines are projected to take delivery of 43,625 new aircraft between 2026 and 2045.
Fleet renewal will drive a large share of demand. Boeing expects around half of all new aircraft deliveries to replace older jets with more fuel-efficient models, helping airlines reduce operating costs and emissions.
Single-aisle aircraft will continue to dominate the market, reflecting the ongoing expansion of domestic and regional travel. Boeing forecasts demand for more than 33,500 narrowbody jets over the next 20 years, representing roughly three-quarters of all projected deliveries. The global single-aisle fleet is expected to nearly double, surpassing 36,000 aircraft by 2045.
Widebody aircraft will also remain an important segment as long-haul travel continues to recover and cargo demand grows. The company forecasts demand for more than 7,700 new widebody aircraft over the next 20 years.
The outlook also includes around 1,400 regional aircraft deliveries and nearly 1,000 newly built freighters. Together with passenger-to-freighter conversions, Boeing projects demand for more than 2,900 freighter aircraft.
Boeing’s forecast shows aircraft demand remaining broadly balanced between mature and growing aviation markets. Emerging and transitioning regions, including China, South and Southeast Asia, the Middle East, Latin America, and Africa, are set to account for around 55% of deliveries, while North America, Europe, Northeast Asia, and Oceania will represent the remaining 45%.